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Richard Walters
Researcher
![Portrait image of Richard Walters. Photo.](/sites/cec.lu.se/files/styles/lu_personal_page_desktop/public/2023-06/richard_walters.jpg.webp?itok=iKzUwC5A)
Cold spot microrefugia hold the key to survival for Brazil's Critically Endangered Araucaria tree
Author
Summary, in English
Brazil's Araucaria tree (Araucaria angustifolia) is an iconic living fossil and a defining element of the Atlantic Forest global biodiversity hotspot. But despite more than two millennia as a cultural icon in southern Brazil, Araucaria is on the brink of extinction, having lost 97% of its extent to 20th-century logging. Although logging is now illegal, 21st-century climate change constitutes a new-but so far unevaluated-threat to Araucaria's future survival. We use a robust ensemble modelling approach, using recently developed climate data, high-resolution topography and fine-scale vegetation maps, to predict the species' response to climate change and its implications for conservation on meso- and microclimate scales. We show that climate-only models predict the total disappearance of Araucaria's most suitable habitat by 2070, but incorporating topographic effects allows potential highland microrefugia to be identified. The legacy of 20th-century destruction is evident-more than a third of these likely holdouts have already lost their natural vegetation-and 21st-century climate change will leave just 3.5% of remnant forest and 28.4% of highland grasslands suitable for Araucaria. Existing protected areas cover only 2.5% of the surviving microrefugia for this culturally important species, and none occur in any designated indigenous territory. Our results suggest that anthropogenic climate change is likely to commit Araucaria to a second consecutive century of significant losses, but targeted interventions could help ensure its survival in the wild.
Department/s
- Centre for Environmental and Climate Science (CEC)
Publishing year
2019-12
Language
English
Pages
4339-4351
Publication/Series
Global Change Biology
Volume
25
Issue
12
Document type
Journal article
Publisher
Wiley-Blackwell
Topic
- Ecology
- Climate Research
Keywords
- Biodiversity
- Brazil
- Climate Change
- Conservation of Natural Resources
- Forests
- Trees
Status
Published
ISBN/ISSN/Other
- ISSN: 1354-1013